Can food shortages bring down civilization?
Third World countries are often described as “developing” while the First World, industrialized nations are often “developed”. What does it mean to describe a nation as “developing”? A lack of material wealth does not necessarily mean that one is deprived. A strong economy in a developed nation doesn’t mean much when a significant percentage (even a majority) of the population is struggling to survive.
Successful development can imply many things, such as (though not limited to):
- An improvement in living standards and access to all basic needs such that a person has enough food, water, shelter, clothing, health, education, etc;
- A stable political, social and economic environment, with associated political, social and economic freedoms, such as (though not limited to) equitable ownership of land and property;
- The ability to make free and informed choices that are not coerced;
- Be able to participate in a democratic environment with the ability to have a say in one’s own future;
- To have the full potential for what the United Nations calls Human Development:
Human development is about much more than the rise or fall of national incomes. It is about creating an environment in which people can develop their full potential and lead productive, creative lives in accord with their needs and interests. People are the real wealth of nations. Development is thus about expanding the choices people have to lead lives that they value. And it is thus about much more than economic growth, which is only a means—if a very important one—of enlarging people’s choices. — What is Human Development?, Human Development Reports, United Nations Development Program
In the May issue of Scientific American, Lester Brown discusses how food shortages could be the weak link that brings down civilization. Brown reveals that the biggest threat to global political stability is the potential for food crises in poor countries to cause government collapse. Those crises are brought on by rising demand and ever worsening environmental degradation.
“In the twentieth century, dramatic rises in grain prices resulted from poor harvests. They were event driven and short-lived. In contrast, the recent escalation in world grain prices is trend-driven, making it unlikely to reverse the rise in food prices without a reversal in the trends themselves.” — Lester Brown
Demand side trends include the addition of more than 70 million people to the global population each year, 4 billion people moving up the food chain–consuming more grain-intensive meat, milk, and eggs–and the massive diversion of U.S. grain to fuel ethanol distilleries.
On the supply side, the trends include falling water tables, eroding soils, and rising temperatures. Higher temperatures lower grain yields. They also melt the glaciers in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan plateau whose ice melt sustains the major rivers and irrigation systems of China and India during the dry seasons. Without a massive intervention to reverse these three environmental trends, Brown argues, more and more states will fail, ultimately threatening civilization itself.
In the article, Brown discusses measures to reverse the trends. He says:
“Among other steps, it will take a massive restructuring of the world energy economy similar in scale and urgency to the wartime restructuring of the U.S. industrial economy in 1942.”
Lester R. Brown is president of Earth Policy Institute and author of Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization, available for free downloading.
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6 Comments on “Can food shortages bring down civilization?”
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a better title might be “when …”.
until we pay attention to the simple math of “resoures to use”, we are certain to see civilization unravel.
good job!
@Bob
Thanks for commenting and for being so patient waiting for a response from me. I’ve had two very hectic weeks full of medical appointments that cut deeply into my blogging time.
I agree that “when” is the reality and that I ought to have used it in the title. IMO we are already beginning to see unraveling. Hopefully everything won’t have to come undone before we initiate the changes that need to be made between our ears and in our hearts.
Great post – a real understanding of the issues.
I do personally believe that our food supply is the most potentially contentious and dangerous issue the world will face in the years ahead.
Writing a lot as I do about the people who grow our food, I come across many examples from a grassroots-eye view of the manipulation of the agricultural and food industries.
And the ability of the world’s farmers to feed a growing population has so many challenges without this, not least of all climate change.
A topic dear to my heart. Thanks for getting the message out there.
Do you follow the Oxfam blog by Duncan Green – so much great information on this and other socially and environmentally important topics.
http://www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/
Have a great day.
Angela
Onceafortnights last blog post..Greatest Job in the World – honest!
@Angela
Hello. Yes I’m aware of Oxfam. They do good work as do many other organizations, however, their focus is on feeding. My preference is to support both feeding programs, and those like Heifer’s International that provide the livestock and agricultural training required to enable people to feed themselves.
Thanks so much for visiting and for leaving a comment too. :)
Very intersting topic and one worth discussing. As one who has traveled the earth destined to stumble into every dung hole above sea level the ambiguity of this century became clear. Technology does not cause evolution…evolution causes technology. The specie must have it within themselves to change into creatures who create outside the natural order or who remain as created within their natural order. Even though there is an adaptation to use the technologies provided to them like..cell phones…video games…television etc..the pre existing conditions and quality of life remain as they were.
Some examples in Africa and the Middle East were you find SAT antennas mounted on small mud huts…imagine electrical power and wide screen TV in mud huts with tin roofs off the side of remote roads !! Folks starving with bloated bellies swatting flies off their childrens faces while chatting on cell phones..!! I kid you not..this world has tipped the scale for Darwin….the strong enable the weak but do not enable their ability to produce and become self reliant..we maintain their co-dependance through a process of shallow distractions and creature comforts while the water remains poisen and the dirt is not plowed to grow crops.
The C130s continue to drop the rice and the warlords pick it up leaving the starved starving…the system is broke and always has been because the intent is not to raise the world up..it is to keep it in a state of dependance..to flow dollars into areas rich with resources …tyranny cloaked as democracy….if only I could have stayed home and missed the show…eyes could have remained closed….ignorance was bliss…
TRex
I like this topic more, what is happening to the world now is also fault of humanity and only humanity could correct its mistakes…
HANNAHs last blog post..Global warming may worsen diseases